ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS OF INFANTS' CRUDE DEATH AND SURVIVAL TRENDS IN JOS METROPOLIS, NIGERIA

Abstract

 The prime reason for this study is to predict if there is a drastic improvement in child birth survival by predicting which of the months and quarters are safer to give birth and to examine the effect of seasonal variation on chances of infants' survival for the period of 8 years. The specific goal of the study is to investigate if both male and female survival rates have any significant influence on infants live births exposed to risk. Mathematical methods were developed and used to determine crude death rate and survival rate. The Least Square method was used to analyse the data computed. Using specific gender exposed to risk for all quarters, the first quarter shows that male is more exposed to risk of death than female. These rates obtained through mathematical methods provide safe margin for statistical estimation and predictions to establish which months and quarter of the year are safer for infants' survival in Jos. The combine mortality for male and female is somewhat constant for the first to third quarters except that in the fourth quarter which is slightly higher than other quarters. As one moves from the first to higher quarters, the chances of child survival decreases. Application of methodical methods developed in this study provides new approach to how crude death rate and survival rate can be determined.